JFK + W = Obama?Submitted by Primary Monitor on Thu, 2007-08-02 09:52.
Mort Kondracke doesn't want the JFK (or GWB) rerun he thinks Barack Obama's campaign conjures up:
"The foreign policy offered by Sen. Barack Obama is bold, idealistic, muscular, expansive, Kennedy-esque. It also is, as his Democratic rival Sen. Hillary Clinton charges, naive and irresponsible. It sounds like the vision of a freshman senator. Or, possibly, a Texas governor with no foreign policy experience. . . .
"There are many attractive ideas in Obama's agenda, including a new language-savvy Americas Voice Corps to work in the Muslim world and programs to fight poverty and ignorance. Obama wants America to be 'the relentless opponent of terror and tyranny and the light of hope to the world.' It all echoes John F. Kennedy -- 'we shall pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend, oppose any foe' -- and Obama clearly means to be the torchbearer for a new generation. But America also needs a president with the experience to avoid a Bay of Pigs, a Vietnam or an Iraq War."
Re: Obama on terrorismSubmitted by Primary Monitor on Wed, 2007-08-01 13:30.
Days after Barack Obama suggested Hillary Clinton was stuck in Bush-Cheney mode on the idea of talking with our enemies, blogger Jerome Armstrong says Obama's speech today adds up to "a continuation of the Bush doctrine of unilateral pre-emptive attacks in the mid-east, with Obama adding Pakistan to the list."
UPDATE: Interesting reactions here, including from Peter Bergen and sometime-friend-to-Ron Paul Michael Scheuer, familiar to readers of The Looming Tower (as well as their own books).
Obama on terrorismSubmitted by Primary Monitor on Wed, 2007-08-01 13:05.
Today's Monitor editorial calls on Democrats to make clearer their plan for dealing with Islamic terrorism. On cue, here is Barack Obama's speech today at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. Excerpts:
"What we saw that morning [9/11] forced us to recognize that in a new world of threats, we are no longer protected by our own power. And what we saw that morning was a challenge to a new generation. The history of America is one of tragedy turned into triumph. And so a war over secession became an opportunity to set the captives free. An attack on Pearl Harbor led to a wave of freedom rolling across the Atlantic and Pacific. An Iron Curtain was punctured by democratic values, new institutions at home, and strong international partnerships abroad.
"After 9/11, our calling was to write a new chapter in the American story. To devise new strategies and build new alliances, to secure our homeland and safeguard our values, and to serve a just cause abroad. We were ready. Americans were united. Friends around the world stood shoulder to shoulder with us. We had the might and moral suasion that was the legacy of generations of Americans. The tide of history seemed poised to turn, once again, toward hope.
"But then everything changed. We did not finish the job against al Qaeda in Afghanistan. We did not develop new capabilities to defeat a new enemy, or launch a comprehensive strategy to dry up the terrorists’ base of support. We did not reaffirm our basic values, or secure our homeland. . . .
"It is time to write a new chapter in our response to 9/11. . . .
"I will not hesitate to use military force to take out terrorists who pose a direct threat to America. This requires a broader set of capabilities, as outlined in the Army and Marine Corps’s new counter-insurgency manual. I will ensure that our military becomes more stealth, agile, and lethal in its ability to capture or kill terrorists. We need to recruit, train, and equip our armed forces to better target terrorists, and to help foreign militaries to do the same. This must include a program to bolster our ability to speak different languages, understand different cultures, and coordinate complex missions with our civilian agencies. . . .
"And I won’t hesitate to use the power of American diplomacy to stop countries from obtaining these weapons or sponsoring terror. The lesson of the Bush years is that not talking does not work. Go down the list of countries we’ve ignored and see how successful that strategy has been. We haven’t talked to Iran, and they continue to build their nuclear program. We haven’t talked to Syria, and they continue support for terror. We tried not talking to North Korea, and they now have enough material for six to eight more nuclear weapons.
"It’s time to turn the page on the diplomacy of tough talk and no action. It’s time to turn the page on Washington’s conventional wisdom that agreement must be reached before you meet, that talking to other countries is some kind of reward, and that Presidents can only meet with people who will tell them what they want to hear. . . .
"We know where extremists thrive. In conflict zones that are incubators of resentment and anarchy. In weak states that cannot control their borders or territory, or meet the basic needs of their people. From Africa to central Asia to the Pacific Rim – nearly 60 countries stand on the brink of conflict or collapse. The extremists encourage the exploitation of these hopeless places on their hate-filled websites.
"And we know what the extremists say about us. America is just an occupying Army in Muslim lands, the shadow of a shrouded figure standing on a box at Abu Ghraib, the power behind the throne of a repressive leader. They say we are at war with Islam. That is the whispered line of the extremist who has nothing to offer in this battle of ideas but blame – blame America, blame progress, blame Jews. And often he offers something along with the hate. A sense of empowerment. Maybe an education at a madrasa, some charity for your family, some basic services in the neighborhood. And then: a mission and a gun.
"We know we are not who they say we are. America is at war with terrorists who killed on our soil. We are not at war with Islam. America is a compassionate nation that wants a better future for all people. The vast majority of the world’s 1.3 billion Muslims have no use for bin Ladin or his bankrupt ideas. But too often since 9/11, the extremists have defined us, not the other way around. When I am President, that will change. We will author our own story. . . .
"We are in the early stages of a long struggle. Yet since 9/11, we’ve heard a lot about what America can’t do or shouldn’t do or won’t even try. We can’t vote against a misguided war in Iraq because that would make us look weak, or talk to other countries because that would be a reward. We can’t reach out to the hundreds of millions of Muslims who reject terror because we worry they hate us. We can’t protect the homeland because there are too many targets, or secure our people while staying true to our values. We can’t get past the America of Red and Blue, the politics of who’s up and who’s down.
"That is not the America that I know. The America I know is the last, best hope for that child looking up at a helicopter. It’s the country that put a man on the moon; that defeated fascism and helped rebuild Europe. It’s a country whose strength abroad is measured not just by armies, but rather by the power of our ideals, and by our purpose to forge an ever more perfect union at home.
"That’s the America I know. We just have to act like it again to write that next chapter in the American story. If we do, we can keep America safe while extending security and opportunity around the world. We can hold true to our values, and in doing so advance those values abroad. And we can be what that child looking up at a helicopter needs us to be: the relentless opponent of terror and tyranny, and the light of hope to the world.
"To make this story reality, it’s going to take Americans coming together and changing the fundamental direction of this country. It’s going to take the service of a new generation of young people. It’s going to take facing tragedy head-on and turning it into the next generation’s triumph. That is a challenge that I welcome. Because when we do make that change, we’ll do more than win a war – we’ll live up to that calling to make America, and the world, safer, freer, and more hopeful than we found it."
The paradox of IraqSubmitted by Primary Monitor on Tue, 2007-07-31 21:53.
The transcript of Hugh Hewitt's recent interview of John Burns of the New York Times printed to 16 pages. This excerpt hints at why it's worth reading in full.
"HH: One of the arguments for those favoring a timeline for withdrawal that’s written in stone is that it will oblige the Iraqi political class to get serious about such things as the oil revenue division. Do you believe that’s an accurate argument?
"JB: Well, you would think it would be so, wouldn’t you, that the threat of withdrawal of American troops, and the risk of a slide into catastrophic levels of violence, much higher than we’ve already seen, would impel the Iraqi leadership to move forward. But there’s a conundrum here. There’s a paradox. That’s to say the more that the Democrats in the Congress lead the push for an early withdrawal, the more Iraqi political leaders, particularly the Shiite political leaders, but the Sunnis as well, and the Kurds, are inclined to think that this is going to be settled, eventually, in an outright civil war, in consequence of which they are very, very unlikely or reluctant, at present, to make major concessions. They’re much more inclined to kind of hunker down. So in effect, the threats from Washington about a withdrawal, which we might have hoped would have brought about greater political cooperation in face of the threat that would ensue from that to the entire political establishment here, has had, as best we can gauge it, much more the opposite effect, of an effect that persuading people well, if the Americans are going, there’s absolutely no…and we’re going to have to settle this by a civil war, why should we make concessions on that matter right now? For example, to give you only one isolated exception, why should the Shiite leadership, in their view, make major concessions about widening the entry point for former Baathists into the government, into the senior levels of the military leadership, that’s to say bringing in high ranking Sunnis into the government and the army and the police, who themselves, the Sunnis, are in the main former stalwarts of Saddam’s regime. Why would the Shiites do that if they believe that in the end, they’re going to have to fight a civil war? This is not to reprove people in the Congress who think that the United States has spent enough blood and treasure here. It’s just a reality that that’s the way this debate seems to be being read by many Iraqi politicians.
"HH: Would a, John Burns, a contrary approach yield the also counterintuitive result that if Congress and the United States said we’re there for two or three more years at this level, would that assist the political settlement, in your view, coming about?
"JB: Unfortunately, I think the answer to that is probably not, and that’s something that General Casey and General Petraeus and Ambassador Crocker now, General Petraeus’ partner, if you will, are very wary of. They understand that there has to be something of a fire lit under the feet of the Iraqi leaders. It’s a paradox, it’s a conundrum, which is almost impossible to resolve. Now I think the last thing that you need is an Iraqi leadership which is already inclined to passivity on the matters, the questions that seem to matter most in terms of a national reconciliation here, the last thing they need is to be told, in effect, the deadline has been moved back three years. I would guess the way, if you will, to vector all of this would be to find some sort of solution, indeed it was the benchmark solution, which would say to them if you come together and you work on these benchmarks, then you will continue to have our support. But it seems to me that the mood in Congress has moved beyond that. The mood in Congress, as I read it from here, at least those who are leading the push for the withdrawal, are not much interested anymore in incremental progress by the Iraqi government. They’ve come to the conclusion that this war is lost, that no foreseeable movement by the Iraqi leaders will be enough to justify the continued investment of lives and dollars here by the United States, and that it’s time to pull out. And of course, you can make a strong argument to that effect."
The Democrats' choiceSubmitted by Primary Monitor on Tue, 2007-07-31 21:33.
Rather than change vs. experience, the key Clinton-Obama dynamic, suggests Andrew Sullivan, is "the choice between a defensive crouch and a confident engagement. It is the choice between someone who lost their beliefs in a welter of fear; and someone who has faith that his worldview can persuade a majority."
Sullivan writes: "Clinton has internalized to her bones the 1990s sense that conservatism is ascendant, that what she really believes is unpopular, that the Republicans have structural, latent power of having a majority of Americans on their side. Hence the fact that she reeks of fear, of calculation, of focus groups, of triangulation. . . . Obama is different. He wasn't mugged by the 1980s and 1990s as Clinton was. He doesn't carry within him the liberal self-hatred and self-doubt that Clinton does. The traumatized Democrats fear the majority of Americans are bigoted, know-nothing, racist rubes from whom they need to conceal their true feelings and views. The non-traumatized Democrats are able to say what they think, make their case to potential supporters and act, well, like Republicans acted in the 1980s and 1990s."
Grading ObamaSubmitted by Primary Monitor on Fri, 2007-07-27 11:52.
So, was Barack Obama's much discussed debate answer naive? Did he not mean what he said? Or did he say exactly what he meant? Charles Krauthammer and E.J. Dionne have very different takes. More here (with back-story) and here (with video of yesterday's Obama and Clinton barbs) and here.
Albright + Cheney = Hillary?Submitted by Primary Monitor on Thu, 2007-07-26 10:15.
From Chicago Tribune columnist Steve Chapman:
"There you have it. A Hillary Clinton presidency promises to unite Madeleine Albright's zeal for using bombs in pursuit of liberal ideals with Dick Cheney's vision of the president as emperor. Won't that be fun?"
Credit where credit's dueSubmitted by Primary Monitor on Thu, 2007-07-26 09:48.
This post over at Blue Hampshire gives Joe Biden a lot of credit for his showing at the YouTube debate. The author is not a Biden supporter.
What goes on in (Mitt's) mindSubmitted by Primary Monitor on Wed, 2007-07-25 12:30.
A Velvet Underground fan deconstructs the latest Mitt Romney ad here.
Easy to digestSubmitted by Primary Monitor on Tue, 2007-07-24 11:24.
The questions from last night's Democratic debate are broken into separate YouTube clips here, making it easy to watch only those parts you're interested in.
UPDATE: Here is the full transcript.
Re: Justice Obama?Submitted by Primary Monitor on Mon, 2007-07-23 16:43.
Following up on his who-would-a-Democrat-pick speculation about the Supreme Court, Scotusblog's Tom Goldstein has added a list of potential Republican nominees. If he gets only one guess, it's Judge Consuelo Callahan for Justice John Paul Stevens. Goldstein, who in his earlier post, predicted that New Hampshire's David Souter would be the first justice to retire during a Democratic administration (ahead of the much older Stevens), guesses that Souter might stick it out in a Republican administration -- but might be inclined to retire, say, if Rudy Giuliani is the president and the Democrats control the Senate. For what it's worth, a Giuliani nominee might come from this list.
'Do what is necessary'Submitted by Primary Monitor on Sun, 2007-07-15 14:04.
"The nation was far better off when the New Hampshire primary occurred deeper into the winter and other states followed over the next few months."
- The Boston Globe editorial board.
The paper goes on to say: "New Hampshire Secretary of State William Gardner recently told a Globe reporter that he has 'a few options' to preserve his state's position, but declined to elaborate on them. He should do what is necessary to stay out front."
New Hampshire voters agree.
Re: New pollSubmitted by Ari Richter on Fri, 2007-07-13 14:43.
Let's start dribbling out results from the latest Monitor poll, conducted by Research 2000.
If Secretary of State Bill Gardner decides he needs to schedule the state's presidential primary in 2007 instead of 2008, New Hampshire voters are strongly behind him. Among the 600 likely voters interviewed this week, 77 percent said they would approve of moving up the primary to keep it first in the nation. Only 18 percent said they would not approve. The splits were not dependent on party identification.
UPDATE: Asked to rate President Bush's job performance, 1 percent of New Hampshire voters chose "excellent," 27 percent chose "good," 55 percent chose "fair" and 16 percent chose "poor." Here's how the numbers have looked over time:
- 10/2002 -- 21% excellent, 53% good
- 10/2003 -- 8% excellent, 47% good
- 11/2005 -- 5% excellent, 34% good
- 11/2006 -- 4% excellent, 32% good
- 7/2007 -- 1% excellent, 27% good
The voters surveyed were more favorable in their assessment of the jobs being done by others serving them:
- Gov. John Lynch -- 19% excellent, 43% good
- U.S. Sen. Judd Gregg -- 12% excellent, 39% good
- U.S. Sen. John Sununu -- 8% excellent, 34% good
- N.H. Legislature -- 6% excellent, 32% good
- U.S. Rep. Paul Hodes -- 9% excellent, 32% good
- U.S. Rep. Carol Shea-Porter -- 7% excellent, 28% good
The last two (each with 34% saying they're unsure) are based on surveys of 300 likely voters in the relevant congressional district, and the margin of error is plus or minus 6 percentage points. For the statewide portions of the poll, the margin of error is 4 percentage points.
More results to come in the Monitor Saturday and Sunday.
Justice Obama?Submitted by Primary Monitor on Thu, 2007-07-12 12:41.
Could Barack Obama wind up on the Supreme Court if he doesn't end up in the White House? Well, he's one of 30 potential nominees of a Democratic president on a list compiled by Tom Goldstein at ScotusBlog. (Tom promises a forthcoming list for a Republican president as well.)
Obama is not, ultimately, Tom's best guess. (He doesn't give away whether that's because he thinks Obama will be making the pick.) Forcing himself to make one super-speculative prediction, Tom guesses a Democratic president's first nominee would be Judge Kim Wardlaw -- to replace New Hampshire's David Souter! (He guesses the much older John Paul Stevens will retire second.)
Regular readers of Scotusblog will recall that Tom correctly predicted the appointments of John Roberts and Samuel Alito -- and, on the morning of Harriet Miers's nomination, predicted that she would not make it to the court.
New pollSubmitted by Primary Monitor on Thu, 2007-07-12 11:35.
The Monitor will publish the results of a new presidential primary poll this week. Pollster.com has summaries of all the major NH polls in graphic (GOP and Dems) and printable (GOP and Dems) form.