Monitor post-Iowa poll: McCain +6, Obama +1

John McCain has doubled his support since mid-December and leads Mitt Romney, 35 percent to 29 percent, according to a Concord Monitor/Research 2000 post-Iowa survey of likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire. Mike Huckabee was the choice of 13 percent of those surveyed, followed by Rudy Giuliani at 8 percent, Ron Paul at 7 percent, Fred Thompson at 3 percent and Duncan Hunter at 1 percent.

Among likely Democratic primary voters, Barack Obama was the choice of 34 percent of those surveyed and Hillary Clinton was the choice of 33 percent, suggesting the race is a virtual dead heat. John Edwards was next at 23 percent, followed by Bill Richardson at 4 percent and Dennis Kucinich at 3 percent.

Research 2000 surveyed 400 likely Republican and 400 likely Democratic primary voters yesterday and today. The margin of error for each sample is plus or minus 5 percentage points.

UPDATE -- more numbers from the poll:

  • Obama's one-point edge shows up among men (32-31) and women (36-35).
  • He trails Clinton among registered Democrats (35-30 with Edwards at 27) but leads among undeclared voters (41-29-17).
  • McCain leads among men (37-26) and women (33-32).
  • He leads Romney among registered Republicans (32-30 with Huckabee at 16) and undeclared voters (44-26 with Paul at 13).
  • Undeclared voters make up 38 percent of the likely Democratic pool and 24 percent of the likely Republican pool. (Secretary of State Bill Gardner predicted about 35 percent and 25 percent, respectively.)
  • The last Monitor poll, conducted Dec. 10-12, had on the GOP side Romney 31, Giuliani 18, McCain 17 and on the Democratic side Obama 32, Clinton 31, Edwards 18.

UNH is also out with a poll tonight. Its results are almost identical at the top.


  • McCain 33
  • Romney 27
  • Giuliani 14
  • Huckabee 11
  • Paul 9


  • Clinton 33
  • Obama 33
  • Edwards 20
  • Richardson 4
  • Kucinich 2

UNH is tracking and will release two more tallies.